Forecast
| Rating | 1873 (#5) | 1836 (#8) |
|---|---|---|
| Matches on record | 73 | 84 |
| Recent form | WWWWL | WWWWL |
| Head-to-head wins | 3 | 1 |
Set-score probabilities
Chance of a third set 49%
Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula: match analysis
On 10 September 2026, Aryna Sabalenka takes on Jessica Pegula at US Open, Women. Aryna Sabalenka is rated 1873 (ranked 5 by our model), Jessica Pegula 1836 (ranked 8 by our model) — 37 points apart.
Result against the prediction
Final score in sets: 2–0 (7-5, 6-2). This match was not in the prediction record, which only takes matches locked before they start.
Form and context
Aryna Sabalenka is 8–2 over the last 10 matches. That includes a run of 4 straight wins. The latest result was a 2–1 win over Linda Noskova at US Open, Women (8 September). ATP/WTA-level record in 2026: 30–7. The strongest opponent beaten recently was Naomi Osaka, rated 1799.
Recent form for Jessica Pegula: 9–1 in the last 10. The current winning run stands at 4. The latest result was a 2–1 win over Emma Navarro at US Open, Women (9 September). ATP/WTA-level record in 2026: 35–10. Best recent win: Aryna Sabalenka (rated 1873).
Head to head
Head to head: Aryna Sabalenka 2–1 from 3 meetings; most recently Jessica Pegula won 2–1 at Berlin on 20 June.
Key factors
- Rating gap: 37 points in favour of Aryna Sabalenka. This drives most of the win probability.
- Last 10 matches: Aryna Sabalenka 8–2, Jessica Pegula 9–1.
- ATP/WTA-level matches on record: Aryna Sabalenka 71, Jessica Pegula 82. A rating built at tour level is trusted more than one built in ITF events.
- Head to head: Aryna Sabalenka 2–1 from 3 meetings; most recently Jessica Pegula won 2–1 at Berlin on 20 June.
Full head to head: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula →
Previous meetings
| 2026-09-10 | Won by Aryna Sabalenka | 2-0 7-5, 6-2 | US Open, Women |
| 2026-06-20 | Won by Jessica Pegula | 1-2 4-6, 7-6, 0-6 | Berlin |
| 2025-11-04 | Won by Aryna Sabalenka | 2-0 | WTA Singles: Masters Cup WTA |
| 2025-10-11 | Won by Aryna Sabalenka | 2-0 | WTA Singles: Wuhan |
Last five: Aryna Sabalenka
| 2026-09-12 | L | Elena Rybakina | 1-2 | US Open, Women |
| 2026-09-10 | W | Jessica Pegula | 2-0 | US Open, Women |
| 2026-09-08 | W | Linda Noskova | 2-1 | US Open, Women |
| 2026-09-06 | W | Taylor Townsend | 2-0 | US Open, Women |
| 2026-09-04 | W | Kamilla Rakhimova | 2-0 | US Open, Women |
Full record for Aryna Sabalenka →
Last five: Jessica Pegula
| 2026-09-10 | L | Aryna Sabalenka | 0-2 | US Open, Women |
| 2026-09-09 | W | Emma Navarro | 2-1 | US Open, Women |
| 2026-09-06 | W | Sorana Cirstea | 2-0 | US Open, Women |
| 2026-09-04 | W | Leylah Fernandez | 2-1 | US Open, Women |
| 2026-09-02 | W | Sofia Kenin | 2-0 | US Open, Women |
Full record for Jessica Pegula →