16 September 2026 / WTA Sao Paulo, Brazil Women, Singles /R6
Mary Stoiana vs Claire Liu
WTA Final: 2–0 (6-3, 7-5)
Forecast
| Rating | 1551 (#269) | 1578 |
|---|---|---|
| Matches on record | 41 | 18 |
| Recent form | WLWWL | LWLLL |
| Head-to-head wins | 1 | 0 |
Set-score probabilities
Chance of a third set 50%
Mary Stoiana vs Claire Liu: match analysis
Mary Stoiana and Claire Liu meet at WTA Sao Paulo, Brazil Women, Singles on 16 September 2026. There is little data on Claire Liu yet, so the rating is pulled towards the average.
Result against the prediction
Final score in sets: 2–0 (6-3, 7-5). This match was not in the prediction record, which only takes matches locked before they start.
Form and context
Mary Stoiana is 4–6 over the last 10 matches. Last time out, Mary Stoiana lost 0–2 to Alexandra Eala at US Open, Women on 2 September. At tour level this season: 6–8. Best recent win: Matilde Jorge (rated 1594).
Claire Liu comes in with a 6–4 record from the last 10 matches. Last time out, Claire Liu lost 1–2 to Heather Watson at US Open, Women on 24 August. At tour level this season: 11–6. Best recent win: Kaitlin Quevedo (rated 1677).
Head to head
This is their first meeting in our records.
Key factors
- Claire Liu carries the higher rating by 27 points — the biggest single input to the forecast.
- Form over the last 10: Mary Stoiana 4–6 against Claire Liu 6–4.
- Tour-level experience in our data: Mary Stoiana 16 matches, Claire Liu 17. Ratings from lower-tier events are pulled towards the average.
- One of these players has a moderate record behind their rating, so the forecast is less firm than it looks.
Full head to head: Mary Stoiana vs Claire Liu →
Previous meetings
| 2026-09-16 | Won by Mary Stoiana | 2-0 6-3, 7-5 | WTA Sao Paulo, Brazil Women, Singles |
Last five: Mary Stoiana
| 2026-09-18 | L | Paula Badosa | 0-2 | WTA Sao Paulo, Brazil Women, Singles |
| 2026-09-17 | W | Dominika Salkova | 2-0 | WTA Sao Paulo, Brazil Women, Singles |
| 2026-09-16 | W | Claire Liu | 2-0 | WTA Sao Paulo, Brazil Women, Singles |
| 2026-09-02 | L | Alexandra Eala | 0-2 | US Open, Women |
| 2026-08-25 | W | Harmony Tan | 2-0 | US Open, Women |
Full record for Mary Stoiana →
Last five: Claire Liu
| 2026-09-16 | L | Mary Stoiana | 0-2 | WTA Sao Paulo, Brazil Women, Singles |
| 2026-08-24 | L | Heather Watson | 1-2 | US Open, Women |
| 2026-08-13 | L | Sinja Kraus | 0-2 | Cincinnati |
| 2026-08-11 | W | Polina Iatcenko | 2-0 | Cincinnati |
| 2026-07-14 | L | Yulia Putintseva | 0-2 | Iasi |