Forecast
| Rating | 1441 (#444) | 1480 |
|---|---|---|
| Matches on record | 46 | 1 |
| Recent form | LLLLL | L |
| Head-to-head wins | 0 | 0 |
Set-score probabilities
Chance of a third set 49%
Varvara Lepchenko vs Nicole Melichar-Martinez: match analysis
On 12 September 2026, Varvara Lepchenko takes on Nicole Melichar-Martinez at Guadalajara. Nicole Melichar-Martinez has too few matches on record for a firm rating, so the model keeps that rating close to average.
Form and context
Varvara Lepchenko comes in with a 3–7 record from the last 10 matches. That includes 4 defeats in a row. Last time out, Varvara Lepchenko lost 0–2 to Gabriela Knutson at US Open, Women on 24 August. At tour level this season: 6–12. Best recent win: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro (rated 1542).
Head to head
They have not met before in our records, so there is no head to head to lean on.
Key factors
- Rating gap: 39 points in favour of Nicole Melichar-Martinez. This drives most of the win probability.
- ATP/WTA-level matches on record: Varvara Lepchenko 42, Nicole Melichar-Martinez 0. A rating built at tour level is trusted more than one built in ITF events.
- One of these players has too few matches on record, or has barely played at tour level, so the rating is pulled back towards the average. Treat this as a rough read, not a confident call.
Verdict
Nicole Melichar-Martinez is the pick at 61%, and 0–2 is the single most likely scoreline (33%). A real edge, but an upset would not be a shock. Nicole Melichar-Martinez wins in straight sets in 33% of the model's outcomes, and there is a 49% chance of a deciding third set.
Full head to head: Varvara Lepchenko vs Nicole Melichar-Martinez →
Last five: Varvara Lepchenko
| 2026-09-13 | L | Alycia Parks | 1-2 | Guadalajara |
| 2026-08-24 | L | Gabriela Knutson | 0-2 | US Open, Women |
| 2026-08-11 | L | Alina Korneeva | 0-2 | Cincinnati |
| 2026-08-01 | L | Emerson Jones | 1-2 | Toronto |
| 2026-07-26 | L | Polina Kudermetova | 1-2 | Washington |
Full record for Varvara Lepchenko →
More matches at Guadalajara
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Varvara Lepchenko vs Nicole Melichar-Martinez?
The model makes Nicole Melichar-Martinez the favourite with a 61% chance; Varvara Lepchenko is given 39%.
What is the predicted score for Varvara Lepchenko vs Nicole Melichar-Martinez?
The most likely score in sets is 0–2 (33%), followed by 1–2 (28%).
Will Varvara Lepchenko vs Nicole Melichar-Martinez go to three sets?
The model puts the chance of a deciding third set at 49%.
Have Varvara Lepchenko and Nicole Melichar-Martinez played each other before?
They have not met before in our records, so there is no head to head to lean on.