Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina

Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina: match analysis

US Open, Women puts Aryna Sabalenka against Elena Rybakina on 12 September 2026. In our ratings Aryna Sabalenka stands at 1873 (ranked 5 by our model) and Elena Rybakina at 1895 (ranked 4 by our model), a gap of 22 points.

Result against the prediction

Final score in sets: 1–2 (4-6, 7-5, 2-6). This match was not in the prediction record, which only takes matches locked before they start.

Form and context

Recent form for Aryna Sabalenka: 8–2 in the last 10. The current winning run stands at 5. Last time out, Aryna Sabalenka beat Jessica Pegula 2–0 at US Open, Women on 10 September. At tour level this season: 31–7. Best recent win: Jessica Pegula (rated 1836).

Elena Rybakina comes in with a 10–0 record from the last 10 matches. That includes a run of 10 straight wins. Last time out, Elena Rybakina beat Coco Gauff 2–1 at US Open, Women on 11 September. At tour level this season: 35–7. The strongest opponent beaten recently was Coco Gauff, rated 1911.

Head to head

Aryna Sabalenka leads the head to head 3–0 (3 meetings). The last meeting went to Aryna Sabalenka, 2–1 at WTA Singles: Wuhan (10 October).

Key factors

• Elena Rybakina carries the higher rating by 22 points — the biggest single input to the forecast.
• Last 10 matches: Aryna Sabalenka 8–2, Elena Rybakina 10–0.
• ATP/WTA-level matches on record: Aryna Sabalenka 72, Elena Rybakina 83. A rating built at tour level is trusted more than one built in ITF events.
• Aryna Sabalenka leads the head to head 3–0 (3 meetings). The last meeting went to Aryna Sabalenka, 2–1 at WTA Singles: Wuhan (10 October).