Darja Semenistaja vs Paula Badosa

Darja Semenistaja vs Paula Badosa: match analysis

Darja Semenistaja and Paula Badosa meet at WTA Sao Paulo, Brazil Women, Singles on 14 September 2026. Darja Semenistaja is rated 1601 (No. 157 in our ranking), Paula Badosa 1641 (No. 89 in our ranking) — 40 points apart.

Form and context

Darja Semenistaja comes in with a 4–6 record from the last 10 matches. The latest result was a 0–2 loss to Anastasia Potapova at US Open, Women (1 September). ATP/WTA-level record in 2026: 8–10. Best recent win: Costoulas S. (rated 1630).

Recent form for Paula Badosa: 7–3 in the last 10. Last time out, Paula Badosa lost 0–2 to Coco Gauff at US Open, Women on 3 September. At tour level this season: 12–12. Best recent win: Coco Gauff (rated 1911).

Head to head

They have not met before in our records, so there is no head to head to lean on.

Key factors

• Rating gap: 40 points in favour of Paula Badosa. This drives most of the win probability.
• Last 10 matches: Darja Semenistaja 4–6, Paula Badosa 7–3.
• ATP/WTA-level matches on record: Darja Semenistaja 45, Paula Badosa 33. A rating built at tour level is trusted more than one built in ITF events.

Verdict

Verdict: Paula Badosa to win, with a 58% chance; the most likely score is 0–2 (30%). Very little separates them; Darja Semenistaja is almost as likely to win. Paula Badosa wins in straight sets in 30% of the model's outcomes, and there is a 49% chance of a deciding third set.