Forecast
| Rating | 1589 | 1690 (#50) |
|---|---|---|
| Matches on record | 18 | 56 |
| Recent form | WLLWL | LWWWL |
| Head-to-head wins | 0 | 1 |
Set-score probabilities
Chance of a third set 45%
Kayla Day vs Liudmila Samsonova: match analysis
Guadalajara puts Kayla Day against Liudmila Samsonova on 16 September 2026. Kayla Day has too few matches on record for a firm rating, so the model keeps that rating close to average.
Form and context
Kayla Day comes in with a 6–4 record from the last 10 matches. The latest result was a 2–0 win over Elvina Kalieva at Guadalajara (14 September). ATP/WTA-level record in 2026: 11–6. The strongest opponent beaten recently was Diane Parry, rated 1633.
Recent form for Liudmila Samsonova: 7–3 in the last 10. The latest result was a 2–0 win over Elsa Jacquemot at Guadalajara (15 September). ATP/WTA-level record in 2026: 13–13. Best recent win: Madison Keys (rated 1739).
Head to head
They have not met before in our records, so there is no head to head to lean on.
Key factors
- Rating gap: 102 points in favour of Liudmila Samsonova. This drives most of the win probability.
- Form over the last 10: Kayla Day 6–4 against Liudmila Samsonova 7–3.
- Tour-level experience in our data: Kayla Day 17 matches, Liudmila Samsonova 52. Ratings from lower-tier events are pulled towards the average.
- One of these players has a moderate record behind their rating, so the forecast is less firm than it looks.
Verdict
The model makes Liudmila Samsonova the favourite at 74%, with 0–2 the most likely score (44%). That is one of the firmer calls a tennis model can make. Liudmila Samsonova wins in straight sets in 44% of the model's outcomes, and there is a 45% chance of a deciding third set.
Full head to head: Kayla Day vs Liudmila Samsonova →
Previous meetings
| 2026-09-17 | Won by Liudmila Samsonova | 1-2 6-7, 6-2, 6-7 | Guadalajara |
Last five: Kayla Day
| 2026-09-17 | L | Liudmila Samsonova | 1-2 | Guadalajara |
| 2026-09-14 | W | Elvina Kalieva | 2-0 | Guadalajara |
| 2026-08-24 | L | Julieta Pareja | 0-2 | US Open, Women |
| 2026-08-15 | L | Shuai Zhang | 1-2 | Cincinnati |
| 2026-08-12 | W | Yue Yuan | 2-1 | Cincinnati |
Last five: Liudmila Samsonova
| 2026-09-19 | L | Peyton Stearns | 0-2 | Guadalajara |
| 2026-09-17 | W | Kayla Day | 2-1 | Guadalajara |
| 2026-09-17 | W | Marta Kostyuk | 2-1 | Guadalajara |
| 2026-09-15 | W | Elsa Jacquemot | 2-0 | Guadalajara |
| 2026-08-16 | L | Coco Gauff | 1-2 | Cincinnati |
Full record for Liudmila Samsonova →
More matches at Guadalajara
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Kayla Day vs Liudmila Samsonova?
The model makes Liudmila Samsonova the favourite with a 74% chance; Kayla Day is given 26%.
What is the predicted score for Kayla Day vs Liudmila Samsonova?
The most likely score in sets is 0–2 (44%), followed by 1–2 (30%).
Will Kayla Day vs Liudmila Samsonova go to three sets?
The model puts the chance of a deciding third set at 45%.
Have Kayla Day and Liudmila Samsonova played each other before?
They have not met before in our records, so there is no head to head to lean on.
What is the recent form of Kayla Day and Liudmila Samsonova?
Over their last 10 matches Kayla Day is 6–4 and Liudmila Samsonova is 7–3.