Mary Stoiana vs Paula Badosa

Mary Stoiana vs Paula Badosa: match analysis

WTA Sao Paulo, Brazil Women, Singles puts Mary Stoiana against Paula Badosa on 18 September 2026. Mary Stoiana is rated 1551 (No. 269 in our ranking), Paula Badosa 1641 (No. 89 in our ranking) — 90 points apart.

Result against the prediction

Final score in sets: 0–2 (4-6, 2-6). This match was not in the prediction record, which only takes matches locked before they start.

Form and context

Recent form for Mary Stoiana: 5–5 in the last 10. The latest result was a 2–0 win over Dominika Salkova at WTA Sao Paulo, Brazil Women, Singles (17 September). ATP/WTA-level record in 2026: 8–8. The strongest opponent beaten recently was Matilde Jorge, rated 1594.

Recent form for Paula Badosa: 7–3 in the last 10. Last time out, Paula Badosa beat Jazmin Ortenzi 2–1 at WTA Sao Paulo, Brazil Women, Singles on 17 September. At tour level this season: 14–12. The strongest opponent beaten recently was Coco Gauff, rated 1911.

Head to head

They have not met before in our records, so there is no head to head to lean on.

Key factors

• Rating gap: 90 points in favour of Paula Badosa. This drives most of the win probability.
• Form over the last 10: Mary Stoiana 5–5 against Paula Badosa 7–3.
• Tour-level experience in our data: Mary Stoiana 18 matches, Paula Badosa 35. Ratings from lower-tier events are pulled towards the average.