Forecast
| Rating | 1570 (#224) | 1501 (#372) |
|---|---|---|
| Matches on record | 66 | 44 |
| Recent form | LWLLL | WLLLW |
| Head-to-head wins | 0 | 0 |
Set-score probabilities
Chance of a third set 48%
Sho Shimabukuro vs Hugo Gaston: match analysis
Sho Shimabukuro faces Hugo Gaston in Hangzhou in a matchup between two players who arrive with solid counts on our board. The match pairs Shimabukuro, holder of a 63% model win probability, against Gaston, who sits at 37%, in a best-of-3-sets contest.
Form and context
Shimabukuro enters with a 10-12 tour-level record this season and a 3-match losing streak locally, while Gaston is 8-10 at tour level with a balanced 5-5 over his last 10. The model shows Shimabukuro holding the edge in overall form, though Gaston has recent notable wins and a closer recent run.
Head to head
This is their first meeting in our records.
Key factors
- Shimabukuro has a higher strength rating in our system and the model favors him to win.
- Gaston has a balanced recent run and a notable recent win at the US Open.
- There is a 48% chance of a deciding set, indicating potential length and tight moments.
Verdict
The pick is Sho Shimabukuro to win. He is favored by the model at 63%, with the most likely result a 2-0 score in favor of Shimabukuro. Straight-sets win for Sho Shimabukuro: 35%. A deciding third set: 48%.
Full head to head: Sho Shimabukuro vs Hugo Gaston →
Last five: Sho Shimabukuro
| 2026-08-23 | L | Miomir Kecmanović | 0-2 | Winston Salem |
| 2026-08-14 | L | Hubert Hurkacz | 0-2 | Cincinnati |
| 2026-08-13 | L | Jeffrey John Wolf | 1-2 | Cincinnati |
| 2026-08-12 | W | Hugo Dellien | 2-0 | Cincinnati |
| 2026-08-03 | L | Marin Čilić | 0-2 | Montreal |
Full record for Sho Shimabukuro →
Last five: Hugo Gaston
| 2026-08-25 | W | Guido Ivan Justo | 2-0 | US Open, Men |
| 2026-08-12 | L | Nicolai Budkov Kjaer | 1-2 | Cincinnati |
| 2026-08-01 | L | Duncan Chan | 1-2 | Montreal |
| 2026-07-25 | L | Luca Van Assche | 0-2 | Estoril |
| 2026-07-24 | W | Tiago Torres | 2-0 | Estoril |
More matches at Hangzhou
Frequently asked questions
What should we expect from this match based on recent results?
Shimabukuro has a stronger recent run in our numbers and a better overall tour-level record this season, suggesting he can push through in straight sets.
Could Gaston challenge Shimabukuro in a deciding set?
Yes, there is a 48% chance of a deciding set, so Gaston could force a third frame in some scenarios.
Have Sho Shimabukuro and Hugo Gaston played each other before?
This is their first meeting in our records.