Forecast
| Rating | 1689 (#51) | 1694 (#48) |
|---|---|---|
| Matches on record | 54 | 39 |
| Recent form | LLWWL | LWLWW |
| Head-to-head wins | 0 | 1 |
Set-score probabilities
Chance of a third set 50%
Elise Mertens vs Maja Chwalinska: match analysis
Elise Mertens faces Maja Chwalinska in Singapore as both players bring similar recent form with six wins in their last ten matches. The head-to-head record shows Chwalinska leading 1-0, and current data pinches the balance toward her, especially given her stronger tour-level results this season.
Form and context
Mertens holds a strength rating of 1689 with a 6-4 record in her last ten and a recent loss to Naomi Osaka at the US Open. Chwalinska sits at 1694 with the same 6-4 recent form and a tour-level record of 12-4 this season, highlighted by a win over Diana Shnaider. The model assigns a 53% chance to Chwalinska, reflecting her edge in recent results and the head-to-head history.
Head to head
Head to head: Maja Chwalinska 1–0 from 1 meeting; most recently Maja Chwalinska won 2–0 at Roland Garros on 28 May.
Key factors
- Chwalinska leads their head-to-head 1-0, with the most recent win coming at Roland Garros.
- Chwalinska has a stronger tour-level season record (12-4) compared with Mertens (16-13).
- Match probability favors Chwalinska at 53% with a high chance of a 0-2 set result for Mertens.
Verdict
The pick is Maja Chwalinska to win. Expect the most likely score to be 0-2 in sets for Mertens’s opponent. Maja Chwalinska wins in straight sets in 27% of the model's outcomes, and there is a 50% chance of a deciding third set.
Full head to head: Elise Mertens vs Maja Chwalinska →
Previous meetings
| 2026-05-28 | Won by Maja Chwalinska | 0-2 4-6, 0-6 | Roland Garros |
Last five: Elise Mertens
| 2026-09-05 | L | Naomi Osaka | 1-2 | US Open, Women |
| 2026-09-03 | W | Maria Timofeeva | 2-0 | US Open, Women |
| 2026-09-01 | W | Kaitlin Quevedo | 2-0 | US Open, Women |
| 2026-08-15 | L | Diane Parry | 1-2 | Cincinnati |
| 2026-08-07 | L | Naomi Osaka | 0-2 | Toronto |
Full record for Elise Mertens →
Last five: Maja Chwalinska
| 2026-09-23 | W | Oleksandra Oliynykova | 2-0 | Singapore |
| 2026-09-21 | W | Rebecca Šramková | 2-0 | Singapore |
| 2026-08-17 | L | Diana Shnaider | 0-2 | Cincinnati |
| 2026-08-15 | W | Cristina Bucsa | 2-0 | Cincinnati |
| 2026-08-04 | L | Talia Gibson | 0-2 | Toronto |
Full record for Maja Chwalinska →
Frequently asked questions
What should I know about their recent form going into this match?
Chwalinska has a stronger tour-level record this season and a recent win, while Mertens has a similar recent run but a tougher head-to-head history against her opponent.
How does the head-to-head history affect expectations?
Chwalinska won their only previous meeting, which aligns with the model’s higher probability for her to win this match.
Have Elise Mertens and Maja Chwalinska played each other before?
Head to head: Maja Chwalinska 1–0 from 1 meeting; most recently Maja Chwalinska won 2–0 at Roland Garros on 28 May.