Alana Smith vs Anastasia Tikhonova

Alana Smith vs Anastasia Tikhonova: match analysis

WTA Sao Paulo, Brazil Women, Singles puts Alana Smith against Anastasia Tikhonova on 12 September 2026. The rating gap is 127 points: Alana Smith 1439 (No. 445 in our ranking) against Anastasia Tikhonova 1566 (No. 231 in our ranking).

Form and context

Alana Smith comes in with a 5–5 record from the last 10 matches. Last time out, Alana Smith lost 1–2 to Daria Kasatkina at Washington on 26 July. At tour level this season: 2–2. The strongest opponent beaten recently was Victoria Bosio, rated 1520.

Anastasia Tikhonova is 8–2 over the last 10 matches. Last time out, Anastasia Tikhonova lost 0–2 to Erjavec V. at WTA Singles: Quito WTA on 2 December. All of Anastasia Tikhonova's 2026 results on record come below tour level. The strongest opponent beaten recently was Nepliy E., rated 1542.

Head to head

They have not met before in our records, so there is no head to head to lean on.

Key factors

• Rating gap: 127 points in favour of Anastasia Tikhonova. This drives most of the win probability.
• Last 10 matches: Alana Smith 5–5, Anastasia Tikhonova 8–2.
• ATP/WTA-level matches on record: Alana Smith 10, Anastasia Tikhonova 10. A rating built at tour level is trusted more than one built in ITF events.

Verdict

The model makes Anastasia Tikhonova the favourite at 70%, with 0–2 the most likely score (41%). By tennis standards that is a clear call. Straight-sets win for Anastasia Tikhonova: 41%. A deciding third set: 46%.