Leylah Fernandez vs Hayu Kinoshita

Leylah Fernandez vs Hayu Kinoshita: match analysis

Leylah Fernandez and Hayu Kinoshita meet at WTA Sao Paulo, Brazil Women, Singles on 15 September 2026. The rating gap is 155 points: Leylah Fernandez 1635 (No. 97 in our ranking) against Hayu Kinoshita 1480.

Form and context

Leylah Fernandez is 4–6 over the last 10 matches. The latest result was a 1–2 loss to Jessica Pegula at US Open, Women (4 September). ATP/WTA-level record in 2026: 14–15. The strongest opponent beaten recently was Mirra Andreeva, rated 1821.

Recent form for Hayu Kinoshita: 3–7 in the last 10. The latest result was a 0–2 loss to Darja Semenistaja at WTA Sao Paulo, Brazil Women, Singles (15 September). ATP/WTA-level record in 2026: 2–4. Best recent win: Black B. (rated 1600).

Head to head

They have not met before in our records, so there is no head to head to lean on.

Key factors

• Rating gap: 155 points in favour of Leylah Fernandez. This drives most of the win probability.
• Form over the last 10: Leylah Fernandez 4–6 against Hayu Kinoshita 3–7.
• Tour-level experience in our data: Leylah Fernandez 60 matches, Hayu Kinoshita 8. Ratings from lower-tier events are pulled towards the average.

Verdict

The model makes Leylah Fernandez the favourite at 76%, with 2–0 the most likely score (46%). By tennis standards that is a clear call. Leylah Fernandez wins in straight sets in 46% of the model's outcomes, and there is a 43% chance of a deciding third set.