Mary Stoiana vs Claire Liu

Mary Stoiana vs Claire Liu: match analysis

Mary Stoiana and Claire Liu meet at WTA Sao Paulo, Brazil Women, Singles on 15 September 2026. There is little data on Claire Liu yet, so the rating is pulled towards the average.

Form and context

Mary Stoiana is 4–6 over the last 10 matches. Last time out, Mary Stoiana lost 0–2 to Alexandra Eala at US Open, Women on 2 September. At tour level this season: 6–8. Best recent win: Matilde Jorge (rated 1594).

Claire Liu comes in with a 6–4 record from the last 10 matches. Last time out, Claire Liu lost 1–2 to Heather Watson at US Open, Women on 24 August. At tour level this season: 11–6. Best recent win: Kaitlin Quevedo (rated 1677).

Head to head

This is their first meeting in our records.

Key factors

• Claire Liu carries the higher rating by 27 points — the biggest single input to the forecast.
• Form over the last 10: Mary Stoiana 4–6 against Claire Liu 6–4.
• Tour-level experience in our data: Mary Stoiana 16 matches, Claire Liu 17. Ratings from lower-tier events are pulled towards the average.
• One of these players has a moderate record behind their rating, so the forecast is less firm than it looks.

Verdict

Mary Stoiana is the pick at 52%, and 2–0 is the single most likely scoreline (26%). Close to a coin flip, so read it as a lean rather than a call. Mary Stoiana wins in straight sets in 26% of the model's outcomes, and there is a 50% chance of a deciding third set.