ATP predictions 11 September 2026
ATP matches only: win probability, most likely set score and deciding-set chance for every singles match, from ratings built on 57,590 matches.
2Matches
1Tournaments
2Forecast
9,192Players rated
Strongest calls of the day
All matches by tournament
ATP US Open, Men
19:15Alexander ZverevKaren Khachanov
6773
3660
Zverev89%3–0›23:40Frances TiafoeBen Shelton63351
46673
Shelton58%1–3›
How these predictions are made
Every player carries a rating that moves after each match by how surprising the result was — beating a stronger opponent is worth more than beating a weaker one, and a win in an ATP or WTA draw counts for more than one in an ITF event. The win probability comes from the gap between two ratings, adjusted by their head-to-head record. The set score follows from that probability rather than being guessed separately. Where a player has played too few matches, or has never played at tour level, the rating is pulled back towards the average and the match is marked as thin data instead of being dressed up as a confident call. Doubles are excluded: the rating measures singles.
Every player carries a rating that moves after each match by how surprising the result was — beating a stronger opponent is worth more than beating a weaker one, and a win in an ATP or WTA draw counts for more than one in an ITF event. The win probability comes from the gap between two ratings, adjusted by their head-to-head record. The set score follows from that probability rather than being guessed separately. Where a player has played too few matches, or has never played at tour level, the rating is pulled back towards the average and the match is marked as thin data instead of being dressed up as a confident call. Doubles are excluded: the rating measures singles.