Over 2.5 sets predictions 21 September 2026

Every best-of-three singles match ranked by the chance that it goes the distance to a third set. Evenly matched players make three-setters; a lopsided pairing usually ends in two.

Chance of a third set, 14 matches

MatchThree sets Two sets
Finished Daria Kasatkina – Aliaksandra Sasnovich Singapore · final 0–2 50% 50%
Finished Kamilla Rakhimova – Polina Kudermetova Seoul · final 2–1 50% 50%
Finished Storm Hunter – Joanna Garland Singapore · final 1–2 50% 50%
Finished Darya Astakhova – Magda Linette Seoul · final 2–1 50% 50%
Finished Kristina Mladenović – Nao Hibino Singapore · final 1–2 49% 51%
Finished Yue Yuan – Dayeon Back Seoul · final 1–2 46% 54%
Finished Xinxin Yao – Maya Joint Seoul · final 1–2 46% 54%
Finished Katie Volynets – Elvina Kalieva Seoul · final 2–0 46% 54%
Finished Talia Gibson – Fiona Ferro Singapore · final 2–0 43% 57%
Finished Kaitlin Quevedo – Nadia Podoroska WTA Sao Paulo, Brazil Women, Singles · final 2–1 42% 58%
Finished Lanlana Tararudee – Moyuka Uchijima Seoul · final 2–1 39% 61%
Finished Rebecca Šramková – Maja Chwalinska Singapore · final 0–2 39% 61%
Finished Alina Korneeva – Mananchaya Sawangkaew Seoul · final 2–0 38% 62%
Finished Kyoka Okamura – Leylah Fernandez Singapore · final 0–2 38% 62%
How the three-set chance is worked out
It follows directly from the win probability: the closer a match is to 50/50, the more likely each set is to be shared and the match to need a third. Grand Slam men's matches (best of five) are left out here.