Over 2.5 sets predictions 23 September 2026

Every best-of-three singles match ranked by the chance that it goes the distance to a third set. Evenly matched players make three-setters; a lopsided pairing usually ends in two.

Chance of a third set, 20 matches

MatchThree sets Two sets
11:30 Valentin Royer – Adam Walton Hangzhou 49% 51%
Live Aleksandar Vukić – Kyrian Jacquet Hangzhou 48% 52%
11:40 Alycia Parks – Leylah Fernandez Singapore 47% 53%
Live Mirra Andreeva – Aliaksandra Sasnovich Singapore 33% 67%
Finished Lanlana Tararudee – Sohyun Park Seoul · final 2–0 50% 50%
Finished Nikoloz Basilashvili – Federico Cinà Chengdu · final 2–0 50% 50%
Finished Taro Daniel – Hayato Matsuoka Hangzhou · final 2–0 50% 50%
Finished Elise Mertens – Barbora Krejčiková Singapore · final – 50% 50%
Finished Alex Bolt – Akira Santillan Hangzhou · final 2–1 50% 50%
Finished Sebastián Báez – Jenson Brooksby Chengdu · final 0–2 50% 50%
Finished Bernard Tomić – Fajing Sun Hangzhou · final 0–2 50% 50%
Finished Alexandre Muller – Petr Bar Biryukov Chengdu · final 2–0 49% 51%
Finished Dayeon Back – Maya Joint Seoul · final 0–2 49% 51%
Finished Vit Kopřiva – Jia Hu Chengdu · final 2–0 49% 51%
Finished Oleksandra Oliynykova – Maja Chwalinska Singapore · final 0–2 49% 51%
Finished Dalibor Svrčina – Rio Noguchi Hangzhou · final 2–0 49% 51%
Finished Shintaro Mochizuki – Pavel Kotov Chengdu · final 2–0 47% 53%
Finished Lloyd Harris – Alexis Galarneau Chengdu · final 2–0 47% 53%
Finished Kamilla Rakhimova – Katie Volynets Seoul · final 0–2 44% 56%
Finished Alina Korneeva – Darya Astakhova Seoul · final 2–1 33% 67%
How the three-set chance is worked out
It follows directly from the win probability: the closer a match is to 50/50, the more likely each set is to be shared and the match to need a third. Grand Slam men's matches (best of five) are left out here.