Over 2.5 sets predictions 10 September 2026
Every best-of-three singles match ranked by the chance that it goes the distance to a third set. Evenly matched players make three-setters; a lopsided pairing usually ends in two.
Chance of a third set, 1 matches
| Match | Three sets | Two sets | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Finished | Aryna Sabalenka – Jessica Pegula US Open, Women · final 2–0 | 49% | 51% |
How the three-set chance is worked out
It follows directly from the win probability: the closer a match is to 50/50, the more likely each set is to be shared and the match to need a third. Grand Slam men's matches (best of five) are left out here.
It follows directly from the win probability: the closer a match is to 50/50, the more likely each set is to be shared and the match to need a third. Grand Slam men's matches (best of five) are left out here.