Over 2.5 sets predictions 9 September 2026
Every best-of-three singles match ranked by the chance that it goes the distance to a third set. Evenly matched players make three-setters; a lopsided pairing usually ends in two.
Chance of a third set, 4 matches
| Match | Three sets | Two sets | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Finished | Karen Khachanov – Alexander Blockx US Open, Men · final 2–0 | 49% | 51% | |
| Finished | Mirra Andreeva – Coco Gauff US Open, Women · final 1–2 | 46% | 54% | |
| Finished | Jessica Pegula – Emma Navarro US Open, Women · final 2–1 | 42% | 58% | |
| Finished | Qinwen Zheng – Elena Rybakina US Open, Women · final 1–2 | 32% | 68% |
How the three-set chance is worked out
It follows directly from the win probability: the closer a match is to 50/50, the more likely each set is to be shared and the match to need a third. Grand Slam men's matches (best of five) are left out here.
It follows directly from the win probability: the closer a match is to 50/50, the more likely each set is to be shared and the match to need a third. Grand Slam men's matches (best of five) are left out here.