Over 2.5 sets predictions 12 September 2026

Every best-of-three singles match ranked by the chance that it goes the distance to a third set. Evenly matched players make three-setters; a lopsided pairing usually ends in two.

Chance of a third set, 17 matches

MatchThree sets Two sets
21:20 Maria Florencia Urrutia – Anastasia Tikhonova WTA Sao Paulo, Brazil Women, Singles 49% 51%
Finished Whitney Osuigwe – Fernanda Labrana WTA Sao Paulo, Brazil Women, Singles · final 2–0 50% 50%
Finished Sara Sorribes Tormo – Ena Koike Guadalajara · final 2–0 50% 50%
Finished Xiaodi You – Luiza Fullana WTA Sao Paulo, Brazil Women, Singles · final 2–0 50% 50%
Finished Aryna Sabalenka – Elena Rybakina US Open, Women · final 1–2 50% 50%
Finished Lea Ma – Katarina Zavatska Guadalajara · final 2–0 50% 50%
Finished Nadiia Kichenok – Nicole Melichar-Martinez Guadalajara · final 2–1 50% 50%
Finished Justina Mikulskyte – Antonia Vergara Rivera WTA Sao Paulo, Brazil Women, Singles · final 2–0 50% 50%
Finished Alexandra Panova – Katrina Scott Guadalajara · final 0–2 50% 50%
Finished Ana Candiotto – Cadence Brace WTA Sao Paulo, Brazil Women, Singles · final 0–2 50% 50%
Finished Hayu Kinoshita – Victoria Rodriguez WTA Sao Paulo, Brazil Women, Singles · final 2–1 50% 50%
Finished Victoria Bosio – Lizette Cabrera WTA Sao Paulo, Brazil Women, Singles · final 2–1 50% 50%
Finished Mingge Xu – Caroline Dolehide Guadalajara · final 0–2 50% 50%
Finished Sofiia Bielinska – Nao Hibino Guadalajara · final 0–2 49% 51%
Finished Chloe Paquet – Martina Capurro Taborda WTA Sao Paulo, Brazil Women, Singles · final 2–1 49% 51%
Finished Iryna Shymanovich – Ana Sofia Sanchez Guadalajara · final 2–0 48% 52%
Finished Carole Monnet – Julia Garcia Guadalajara · final 2–0 48% 52%
How the three-set chance is worked out
It follows directly from the win probability: the closer a match is to 50/50, the more likely each set is to be shared and the match to need a third. Grand Slam men's matches (best of five) are left out here.