Over 2.5 sets predictions 16 September 2026

Every best-of-three singles match ranked by the chance that it goes the distance to a third set. Evenly matched players make three-setters; a lopsided pairing usually ends in two.

Chance of a third set, 17 matches

MatchThree sets Two sets
23:00 Kayla Day – Liudmila Samsonova Guadalajara 45% 55%
Finished Jessica Bouzas Maneiro – Dominika Salkova WTA Sao Paulo, Brazil Women, Singles · final 0–2 50% 50%
Finished Mary Stoiana – Claire Liu WTA Sao Paulo, Brazil Women, Singles · final 2–0 50% 50%
Finished Magdalena Frech – Caroline Dolehide Guadalajara · final 2–0 50% 50%
Finished Darja Semenistaja – Teodora Kostović WTA Sao Paulo, Brazil Women, Singles · final 0–2 50% 50%
Finished Anna Blinkova – Carol Young-suh Lee WTA Sao Paulo, Brazil Women, Singles · final 2–0 50% 50%
Finished Suzan Lamens – Carolina Alves WTA Sao Paulo, Brazil Women, Singles · final 2–1 50% 50%
Finished Sloane Stephens – Janice Tjen Guadalajara · final 2–0 49% 51%
Finished Eva Lys – Gabriela Cé WTA Sao Paulo, Brazil Women, Singles · final 2–1 49% 51%
Finished Nauhany Vitoria Leme Da Silva – Astra Sharma WTA Sao Paulo, Brazil Women, Singles · final 2–1 49% 51%
Finished Cadence Brace – Solana Sierra WTA Sao Paulo, Brazil Women, Singles · final 1–2 47% 53%
Finished Jazmin Ortenzi – Chloe Paquet WTA Sao Paulo, Brazil Women, Singles · final 2–0 46% 54%
Finished Anastasia Tikhonova – Kaitlin Quevedo WTA Sao Paulo, Brazil Women, Singles · final 0–2 45% 55%
Finished Marta Kostyuk – Taylor Townsend Guadalajara · final – 45% 55%
Finished Zeynep Sönmez – Iva Jović Guadalajara · final 0–2 45% 55%
Finished Justina Mikulskyte – Paula Badosa WTA Sao Paulo, Brazil Women, Singles · final 0–2 44% 56%
Finished Vendula Valdmannova – Laura Pigossi WTA Sao Paulo, Brazil Women, Singles · final 2–1 40% 60%
How the three-set chance is worked out
It follows directly from the win probability: the closer a match is to 50/50, the more likely each set is to be shared and the match to need a third. Grand Slam men's matches (best of five) are left out here.